Unicapital Securities, Inc. launched its 2025 Mid-Year Briefing series with Turning the Corner, a look into where the Philippine economy and markets are heading. Experts pointed to easing inflation, stronger consumer confidence, and supportive policies as drivers of growth in the second half of the year.
Inflation averaged just 1.8 percent in the first half of 2025, the lowest in more than a decade. This prompted Unicapital to lower its year-end forecast from 3.1 percent to 2.0 percent. The drop, mainly due to lower rice and oil prices, also gave the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas room to consider another rate cut of 25 to 50 basis points. Cheaper borrowing costs are expected to encourage investment and household spending.
GDP growth is projected at 5.5 percent, higher than the Southeast Asia average of 4.2 percent. Household consumption, infrastructure projects, tourism recovery, and steady overseas remittances are key factors behind the resilience of the Philippine economy.
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index recovered to 6,350 in July after a 3 percent dip earlier this year. Unicapital forecasts the PSEi to reach 7,100 by year-end, supported by stronger earnings and attractive valuations. President Marlyne Fernandez highlighted growth opportunities in Consumer, REITs, and Utilities, noting that the Philippines is on track to lead regional growth in 2025.
International trade presents both challenges and opportunities. While semiconductors remain competitive, U.S. tariff policies under President Donald Trump now impose a 19 percent tax on many Philippine exports. This is higher than rates for Vietnam and Thailand, making Philippine products less competitive in the U.S. market.
Unicapital believes that if momentum holds, the Philippines can translate its stability into sustained growth for businesses, investors, and households in the months ahead.
