Asean+3 Growth Forecast Holds at 4.0%, but Inflation Outlook Rises

AMRO says the region remains resilient, but higher energy, transport, and commodity costs are adding pressure to inflation and supply chains.

AMRO has maintained its ASEAN+3 Growth Outlook at 4.0 percent for 2026, even as inflation pressures are expected to rise across the region.

In its June 2026 interim update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office raised its regional inflation forecast to 1.8 percent, up from the previous 1.4 percent projection in April.

The adjustment reflects the longer-than-expected impact of the Middle East conflict, which has now entered its fourth month.

According to AMRO, energy, commodity, and logistics costs have remained elevated, while petroleum supplies have tightened.

Early signs of disruption have also emerged in key industrial inputs such as helium, sulfur, and fertilizers, although broad market disruptions have so far been avoided.

“ASEAN+3 growth has remained resilient, supported by firm domestic demand and technology exports. But incipient signs of stress are emerging,” said Dong He, AMRO Chief Economist.

He warned that higher energy and transport costs are feeding into inflation and could weigh on regional growth if the conflict continues.

The ASEAN+3 Growth Outlook remains supported by stronger-than-expected first-quarter performance, but AMRO said the full impact of the conflict has yet to materialize.

Net energy importers and economies exposed to affected industrial inputs may face stronger headwinds.

Under an adverse scenario where oil prices average USD125 per barrel in 2026, regional growth could slow to 2.5 percent, while inflation could rise to 3.5 percent.

AMRO said policy responses must remain agile, with near-term support targeted and temporary.

Longer-term priorities should focus on energy security, supply-chain resilience, and stronger regional integration.

The ASEAN+3 Growth Outlook remains steady for now, but prolonged geopolitical disruptions could raise costs and test the region’s economic resilience.