What Readers Should Know
AMRO kept its ASEAN+3 growth forecast at 4.0% for 2026 but raised its inflation outlook to 1.8%. The update reflects higher energy, logistics, and commodity costs linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict.
Key Takeaways
- AMRO maintained ASEAN+3 growth at 4.0% for 2026
- Regional inflation forecast was raised to 1.8% from 1.4%
- The update reflects prolonged disruptions from the Middle East conflict
- Energy, commodity, and logistics costs remain elevated
- In a worse scenario, growth could slow to 2.5% and inflation could rise to 3.5%
AMRO says the region remains resilient, but higher energy, transport, and commodity costs are adding pressure to inflation and supply chains.
AMRO has maintained its ASEAN+3 Growth Outlook at 4.0 percent for 2026, even as inflation pressures are expected to rise across the region.
In its June 2026 interim update, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office raised its regional inflation forecast to 1.8 percent, up from the previous 1.4 percent projection in April.
The adjustment reflects the longer-than-expected impact of the Middle East conflict, which has now entered its fourth month.
According to AMRO, energy, commodity, and logistics costs have remained elevated, while petroleum supplies have tightened.
Early signs of disruption have also emerged in key industrial inputs such as helium, sulfur, and fertilizers, although broad market disruptions have so far been avoided.
“ASEAN+3 growth has remained resilient, supported by firm domestic demand and technology exports. But incipient signs of stress are emerging,” said Dong He, AMRO Chief Economist.
He warned that higher energy and transport costs are feeding into inflation and could weigh on regional growth if the conflict continues.
The ASEAN+3 Growth Outlook remains supported by stronger-than-expected first-quarter performance, but AMRO said the full impact of the conflict has yet to materialize.
Net energy importers and economies exposed to affected industrial inputs may face stronger headwinds.
Under an adverse scenario where oil prices average USD125 per barrel in 2026, regional growth could slow to 2.5 percent, while inflation could rise to 3.5 percent.
AMRO said policy responses must remain agile, with near-term support targeted and temporary.
Longer-term priorities should focus on energy security, supply-chain resilience, and stronger regional integration.
The ASEAN+3 Growth Outlook remains steady for now, but prolonged geopolitical disruptions could raise costs and test the region’s economic resilience.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is AMRO’s latest ASEAN+3 growth forecast?
AMRO maintained its ASEAN+3 growth forecast at 4.0 percent for 2026.
2. Why did AMRO raise its inflation outlook?
AMRO raised the inflation forecast due to prolonged Middle East conflict disruptions affecting energy, logistics, and commodity costs.
3. What is the new inflation projection?
The regional inflation projection was raised to 1.8 percent from 1.4 percent.
4. What are the key risks to the outlook?
The main risks are prolonged conflict, higher oil prices, supply disruptions, and tariff uncertainty.
5. What does AMRO recommend?
AMRO recommends agile policy responses, targeted support, stronger energy security, supply-chain resilience, and regional integration.
Gabriel
Introvert, wanderer, blogger, foodie, a hip-hop music writer, and one of the co-founders of a tech start-up company called GigsManila.
Related Articles
More by category, author, or tags
